2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina

The 2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state was narrowly won by the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana, against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. North Carolina had 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Polls of the state throughout the campaign indicated a close race, with most organizations considering it either a tossup or leaning towards Biden. Despite this, Trump ultimately won North Carolina with a 49.93% plurality over Biden's 48.59% vote share (a margin of 1.34%). Trump thereby became the fourth-ever Republican to carry North Carolina without winning the presidency, after George H. W. Bush in 1992, Bob Dole in 1996, and Mitt Romney in 2012. This was Trump's narrowest victory in any state, and it was a closer result than his 3.67% margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016 or Mitt Romney's 2.04% margin over Barack Obama in 2012. North Carolina was the only state in the 2020 election in which Trump won with under 50% of the vote. In the 2020 election, North Carolina was 5.8% right of the nation as a whole. The state last voted Democratic in 2008 and had last voted more Republican than neighboring Georgia in 2000.

Trump's victory was, alongside his victory and actual improvement over 2016 in Florida, one of the upsets of the cycle. Election data website FiveThirtyEight's election forecast had Biden up in both states, albeit by small margins. Similarly, prediction websites Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Economist, and ABC News all had Biden favored in the state.

Primary elections

Presidential preference primaries were held on March 3, 2020 (first cases of COVID-19), for each of the political parties with state ballot access.

Democratic primary

Despite speculation that he might seek the Democratic nomination, Roy Cooper, the Governor of North Carolina, declined to run.

Republican primary

The North Carolina Republican Party submitted to the state only the name of incumbent President Donald Trump to be listed on the primary ballot. The campaign of Bill Weld "has written to the [state Board of Elections] asking to be added to the ballot, arguing that his candidacy meets the legal test because he’s received 'widespread news coverage,' raised more than $1.2 million, and has qualified for the primary ballot in six other states," according to the News and Observer. Joe Walsh similarly petitioned the state board of elections. On Dec. 20, 2019, the state board unanimously voted to include both Weld and Walsh on the ballot.

Libertarian primary

Green primary

Constitution primary

General election

Predictions

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

June 1 – October 31, 2020

January 1, 2020 – May 31, 2020

January 1, 2018 – December 31, 2019

Results

By county

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

New Hanover (largest municipality: Wilmington)
Nash (largest municipality: Rocky Mount)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Scotland (largest municipality: Laurinburg)

By congressional district

Trump won 8 of 13 congressional districts.

Analysis

The rural-urban divide was even more prevalent in North Carolina this election than in past elections. Biden carried eight of North Carolina's ten largest counties (losing only the Charlotte-area suburban counties of Union and Gaston), and overperformed Obama's 2008 margin in the six largest: Wake (Raleigh), Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Forsyth (Winston-Salem), Durham (Durham), and Buncombe (Asheville), in which he received 62%, 67%, 61%, 56%, 80%, and 60% of the vote, respectively. Biden furthermore became the first Democrat to carry New Hanover County, home of Wilmington, since 1976. He also flipped Nash County, which had last voted for Obama in 2012, before switching to Trump in 2016, back to the Democratic column. Biden held Trump to a single-digit margin in the Charlotte-area suburban county of Cabarrus, the first time since 1976 that the Republican margin in this county has been less than 10%.

Conversely, Trump held or outperformed his 2016 margin in Robeson, Bladen, Martin, Granville and Gates counties, all counties that had been reliably Democratic in the 20th century and which had voted for Obama twice before flipping to Trump in 2016. Biden thereby became the first Democrat ever to win the presidency without Robeson County, the largest county in the Lumber River region of the state and the county which had given Jimmy Carter his largest raw vote margin in the state in both 1976 and 1980. Trump picked off neighboring Scotland County, one of only 15 counties he flipped nationally, becoming the first Republican to carry it since Ronald Reagan in 1984 and making Biden the first Democrat to win without Scotland since the county's creation in 1899. Biden also became the first Democrat to win the White House without Granville and Gates counties since Grover Cleveland in 1892, the first since Cleveland in 1884 to win without Bladen County, the first since James Buchanan in 1856 to win without Richmond County and the first ever to win without Martin County.

Edison exit polls

Notes

General footnotes

Partisan clients

References

External links

"League of Women Voters of North Carolina". July 29, 2019. (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "North Carolina", Voting & Elections Toolkits
"North Carolina: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
North Carolina at Ballotpedia

North Carolina Presidential Election Live Results & Map